Week 4 kicks off tonight with an AFC North fight in Cleveland, and the slate runs all the way to a Sunday night showdown in Charlotte. Here’s our full outlook: matchup breakdowns, the lines, our best bets and the anytime touchdown favorites for every bettor and fantasy player.
Spreads, totals and moneylines are from CBS Sports’ Week 4 odds roundup (Sept. 30) and will move. Always check the current number before you bet. Must be 21+. Gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Thursday Night Football: Steelers at Browns
Tonight, 8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video, Huntington Bank Field
Line: Steelers -2.5 | Total: 38.5 | Moneyline: PIT -148, CLE +125
Both teams come in at 2-1, and this line tells you the books see a coin flip with a slight lean toward Pittsburgh’s name. The numbers say be careful with that.
- Pittsburgh’s offense has been stuck. The Steelers rank 29th in the league in EPA per play, per VSiN. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t had much room to work, even with Jaylen Warren running hard behind an improved line.
- Cleveland’s defense is surging. Over the last two weeks, the Browns have allowed -0.141 EPA per play, per VSiN.
- Deshaun Watson is heating up. He’s thrown two touchdown passes in each of the Browns’ last two games, per VSiN.
- Key injury: Steelers running back Rico Dowdle (toe) has been ruled out, per CBS Sports, which puts even more of the backfield work on Warren.
- Trends: Rodgers is 13-6 straight up and 13-5-1 against the spread in Thursday starts, while Cleveland is 7-17-2 ATS after an outright win since 2022, per Covers. The Browns, though, have scored first in four of their last five games against Pittsburgh, per BetMGM.
- Weather: Covers’ forecast calls for temperatures around 70 degrees, cloudy skies, winds near 10 mph and a small chance of rain. Add a short week and you get one of the lowest totals on the board at 38.5.
The split: sharp bettors are on both sides here. VSiN likes the Browns on the moneyline at +125, while Covers backs Pittsburgh -2.5 after the Steelers averaged 6.0 yards per carry and 7.0 yards per play against Cincinnati. CBS Sports’ model projects about 37 combined points. We’re staying out of the side and playing the environment.
IAHHM angle: Under 38.5. A struggling offense, a hot defense, a short week and possible rain is the recipe for a grinder. Props to watch: Jaylen Warren anytime TD (-110) and Harold Fannin Jr. anytime TD (+250). Fannin has scored Cleveland’s first touchdown in three of the Browns’ last four home games.
Sunday Night Football in Charlotte: Lions at Panthers
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC, Bank of America Stadium
Line: Lions -3.5 | Total: 50.5 | Moneyline: DET -193, CAR +163
Records: Lions 2-1, Panthers 1-2
Prime time comes to the Queen City. Carolina is banged up on both sides of the ball, including the secondary, and that’s a problem against a Detroit offense with Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and Jameson Williams. On the other side, the Lions blitz at the third-highest rate in the league, and Bryce Young has been under heavy pressure.
- Panthers injuries: Jaycee Horn and Jonathon Brooks are out, Damien Lewis is doubtful, and Mike Jackson, Jalen Coker, Xavier Legette, Devin Lloyd and Nick Scott are questionable, per SI.
- Lions injuries: Ben Bartch is out, and Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph remain on the PUP list, per SI.
- Efficiency: Detroit ranks 7th in EPA per play on offense and is putting up 31 points a game, but its defense ranks 30th in EPA per play. Carolina’s offense is 12th in EPA per play, per SI. The Lions also own the sixth-highest touchdown rate inside the red zone, per Covers.
- Trends: Detroit is 0-2-1 against the spread, and the Over is 3-0 in Lions games. Carolina is on a 12-game ATS winning streak after a straight-up loss dating back to 2024, per SI.
- Weather: rain showers are in the forecast for Charlotte Sunday night, per Bleacher Report.
The Panthers’ path is Chuba Hubbard. He’s scored Carolina’s first touchdown in two of its last three games, and keeping Detroit’s offense on the sideline is the best defense Carolina has.
IAHHM angle: Lions -3.5. The injuries and the pressure matchup both point the same way. Fair warning: the ATS trends lean Carolina, and SI and BetMGM both like the Over 50.5, so if you’d rather not lay points, the Over is the other side of this story. Keep an eye on the rain.
Props: Amon-Ra St. Brown anytime TD (-111) is better value than Gibbs at -350. Hubbard (-135) is the Panthers’ best scoring bet.
The Rest of the Slate: Key Matchups
Colts vs. Commanders (London, Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Sunday 9:30 a.m. ET)
Line: Colts -3.5 | Total: 47. A neutral-site game is hard to lay more than a field goal in, and Covers reports Jayden Daniels is expected to travel and work toward a return for Washington. If Daniels is confirmed active, the Commanders +3.5 is live.
Broncos at 49ers
Line: 49ers -2.5 | Total: 46.5. San Francisco leads the NFL at 7.35 yards per play, has scored touchdowns on 90% of its red-zone trips and has gone three straight games without allowing a sack, per Covers. The 49ers have also scored first in each of their last two games, while Denver hasn’t scored first all season. Christian McCaffrey is -200 to score.
Packers at Buccaneers
Line: Packers -4 | Total: 39.5. Baker Mayfield has been ruled out with a thumb injury that could keep him out about three weeks, and undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels gets the start for Tampa Bay, per Yahoo Sports. Green Bay’s defense should control this game.
Patriots at Bills
Line: Bills -6.5 | Total: 48.5. New England is averaging about 12 points a game and Drake Maye has struggled, while Buffalo has handled business. Laying under a touchdown with the Bills at home is reasonable.
Cowboys at Texans
Line: Texans -2.5 | Total: 47.5. Covers is taking the Cowboys +2.5 in a game the market sees as close to a coin flip. Javonte Williams (-150) and David Montgomery (-120) are both strong TD plays, and Nico Collins (+125) has scored the most first touchdowns of any NFL receiver since 2023.
Chiefs at Raiders
Line: Chiefs -4.5 | Total: 47.5. Kirk Cousins has nine touchdown passes and Brock Bowers is back, so the Raiders can keep this close. Kenneth Walker III (-175) is Kansas City’s top scoring option.
Rams at Eagles
Line: Rams -3 | Total: 44. Philadelphia is coming off a Monday night loss to the Bears, and the market may be overreacting. Kyren Williams (-125) has scored the Rams’ first touchdown 16 times since 2023, the most on the team.
Monday Night Football: Falcons at Saints
Line: Saints -2.5 | Total: 48.5. Atlanta ranks sixth in pressure percentage and first in PFF pass-rush grade, and Michael Penix Jr. averaged 10.2 yards per attempt with the highest success rate of Week 3, per Covers. The Falcons +2.5 is worth a look.
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IAHHM Best Bets for Week 4
- Steelers-Browns Under 38.5 (Thursday)
- Lions -3.5 at Panthers (Sunday night)
- 49ers -2.5 vs. Broncos
- Bills -6.5 vs. Patriots
- Packers -4 at Buccaneers, with Mayfield out and rookie Jalon Daniels starting
Anytime Touchdown Favorites
| Player | Team | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Lions | -350 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 49ers | -200 |
| Kenneth Walker III | Chiefs | -175 |
| Javonte Williams | Cowboys | -150 |
| Chuba Hubbard | Panthers | -135 |
| Kyren Williams | Rams | -125 |
| David Montgomery | Texans | -120 |
| Ashton Jeanty | Raiders | -111 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | Lions | -111 |
| Jaylen Warren | Steelers | -110 |
| Saquon Barkley | Eagles | +100 |
| Quinshon Judkins | Browns | +120 |
| Nico Collins | Texans | +125 |
Anytime TD odds from BetMGM’s Week 4 previews.
Our favorite TD plays: Amon-Ra St. Brown (-111), Jaylen Warren (-110) and Nico Collins (+125). Long shot: Harold Fannin Jr. (+250) tonight.
Heavy favorites like Gibbs at -350 are good for parlays and fantasy confidence, but there’s little betting value at that price. The plays above give you a better return for the risk.
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Sources: VSiN, Covers, CBS Sports, CBS Sports (TNF), Covers (TNF), SI, Covers (SNF), Bleacher Report (weather), BetMGM (TNF TD odds), BetMGM (SNF TD odds), BetMGM (SNF preview), BetMGM NFL blog, Yahoo Sports (Mayfield), Covers (MNF), Covers (Chiefs-Raiders), Covers (Patriots-Bills), Eagles.com (Week 3 recap). This content is for entertainment and informational purposes only.
