NFL Week 7 Betting Preview: Patriots vs. Bears Breakdown, Best Bets and Anytime TD Favorites

Week 7 opens with a good one. The Patriots and Bears are both 4-2, both quarterbacks are rolling, and the total has climbed past 50. On Sunday, the Panthers host a banged-up Tampa Bay team at Bank of America Stadium. Below: the full TNF breakdown, the Panthers game, quick takes on the rest of the slate, our best bets and the anytime TD board.

Lines are as of Wednesday, Oct. 21 and Thursday morning, Oct. 22, from the sources linked. Lines move, so check your book before you bet.

Thursday Night Football: Patriots at Bears

Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET, Soldier Field, Chicago
TV/Stream: Prime Video
Records: Patriots 4-2 (three straight wins), Bears 4-2 (Bleacher Nation)

The Lines

• Spread: Bears -3 (-102), Patriots +3 (-118) per VegasInsider. Covers shows Bears -3.5. The line opened around Bears -1.5 to -2.5.
• Total: 50.5 (Over -115, Under -105). It opened at 47.5 to 49.5 depending on the book, and Hard Rock has moved to 51.
• Moneyline: Bears -155, Patriots +130

Injuries

• Patriots: OL Alijah Vera-Tucker (hamstring) and Ben Brown (knee) are out. RT Morgan Moses (foot) has a chance to play. WR Romeo Doubs (shoulder) and WR Mack Hollins are on IR. A.J. Brown is back from an ankle injury that cost him multiple weeks. (Yahoo Sports, SI)
• Bears: Caleb Williams is healthy and back at QB after a hamstring injury. Kyle Monangui is out.

Efficiency and Matchup Numbers

• Chicago is tied for last in yards allowed per play and has given up a league-high eight pass plays of 40+ yards. New England has a positive yards-per-play differential; Chicago’s is negative. (Covers)
• Drake Maye over his last three games: 878 yards, 10 TDs, 1 INT. New England has scored 100 points during the three-game win streak.
• The Bears scored 59 and 31 in Williams’ two full games. Chicago leads the league at 160.7 rushing yards per game (Covers) and has 17 sacks, tied for fifth.
• Red zone: Hunter Henry leads New England in targets inside the 20 (five) and inside the 10 (three). DeMario Douglas has turned four red-zone targets into two scores.
• We couldn’t find a citable EPA/play split for this matchup, so we left it out.

Trends and Weather

• The Patriots are 5-0 ATS and 4-1 straight up in regular-season prime-time games under Mike Vrabel.
• Bears are 4-2 ATS, and 2 of their 6 games have gone over. Patriots are 3-2-1 ATS, and 3 of 6 have gone over.
• Early money: 60% of the spread money is on Chicago, and 65% of the money on the total is on the Over (VegasInsider).
• Weather: Clear, around 60 degrees, wind near 5 mph. That’s good weather for both passing games.

The IAHHM Angle

Vrabel’s teams show up in prime time, and Maye is playing the best football of his career against a defense that gives up big plays. Chicago’s run game is real, but the Bears haven’t stopped anybody per play. We like the Patriots getting a field goal or more, and we like points.

TNF Props

• Drake Maye Over 1.5 passing TDs (-122, FanDuel). He has 10 TD passes in three games, and Chicago has allowed the most 40+ yard pass plays in the league.
• DeMario Douglas Over 37.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel). He has 11 catches on 13 targets for 151 yards and 3 TDs over the last two games.
• Roschon Johnson anytime TD (+210, FanDuel). He out-gained Swift per carry in Week 6 (3.9 to 2.8) and scored at Atlanta.

Panthers Spotlight: Buccaneers at Panthers

Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 25, 1 p.m. ET, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte
TV: FOX
Records: Panthers 3-2, Buccaneers 1-5 (Doc’s Sports)

The Lines

• Spread: Panthers -3 (-110 at FanDuel; -120 per VegasInsider). Covers lists -3.5.
• Total: 44.5 (opened 44)
• Moneyline: Panthers -158, Buccaneers +134 (FanDuel)

Injuries: The Baker Question

• Baker Mayfield (right thumb) was a full participant Wednesday after missing three games with a dislocated thumb. Tampa Bay hopes to know by Friday. Undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels has started in his place. (Buccaneers.com)
• Also for Tampa: WR Emeka Egbuka (concussion/foot), RB Bucky Irving (illness), T Luke Goedeke (calf), CB Zyon McCollum (illness) and LB Christian Rozeboom (finger) did not practice Wednesday. S Antoine Winfield Jr. (rib) was limited.
• Bryce Young (knee) practiced in full (NBC Sports). OLB Jaelan Phillips (hamstring) and OLB Thomas Incoom (calf) did not practice. Chuba Hubbard, Taylor Moton, Devin Lloyd and Darren Waller sat out for rest.

The Numbers

• Tampa Bay ranks 29th in EPA/play, 25th in scoring and 28th in red-zone efficiency. The Bucs are top-3 against the run and bottom-10 against the pass. (Covers)
• Bryce Young leads the NFL in passing yards. Carolina is 1st in passing yards per game (295.6), 2nd in total yards (404.4) and 4th in scoring (29.2).
• Carolina’s defense allows 24.6 points per game (21st). Tampa Bay has 11 turnovers, and its two QBs have combined for more interceptions than TD passes.
• Last week, Young threw for 281 yards and 2 TDs in a 25-14 win over Philadelphia, and Hubbard ran 28 times for 120 yards.

Trends

• Bucs are 1-5 ATS. They have scored fewer than 20 points in four of their last five and gone under in their last three non-overtime games.
• Carolina is 3-2 ATS and has gone under in three of its last four.

The IAHHM Angle

Tampa stops the run but struggles against the pass. That’s a bad matchup against the league’s top passing offense. Our main read is Young through the air. If Mayfield is cleared Friday, expect the line to move toward Tampa, so lay the -3 early. Prop to watch: Chuba Hubbard anytime TD (-135), but check that his Wednesday rest day doesn’t turn into something more.

Around the League: Quick Takes

Lines per VegasInsider unless noted.

• Steelers at Saints (Sun 9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network, Stade de France): Steelers -3.5, total 44.5. This is an early game in Paris, so set your alarm.
• Bengals at Ravens (1 p.m., CBS): Bengals -1.5 at some books, total 48.5 (down from 50.5). Covers still shows Ravens -2.5. Lamar Jackson (ankle) is questionable and likely to miss a second straight game. Until we know about Lamar, this line is really a bet on who plays QB.
• 49ers at Falcons (1 p.m., FOX): 49ers -3, total 49.5. Atlanta has 74% of the early spread money, while the public is on the 49ers moneyline.
• Colts at Vikings (1 p.m., CBS): Vikings -6.5, total 41.5. Minnesota is 5-0 straight up.
• Giants at Texans (1 p.m., FOX): Texans -10.5 (opened -8.5), total 42.5. This is the biggest spread of the week.
• Dolphins at Jets: Jets -4.5, total 39.5.
• Browns at Titans: Browns -1.5, total 37.5, the lowest total on the board.
• Broncos at Cardinals: Broncos -4.5, total 43.5.
• Packers at Lions (4:25 p.m.): Lions -3, total 53.5, the highest total of the week.
• Rams at Raiders (4:25 p.m.): Rams -4.5, total 48.5.
• Chiefs at Seahawks (SNF, 8:20 p.m., NBC): Seahawks -2.5, total 42.5.
• Cowboys at Eagles (MNF, 8:15 p.m., ESPN): Cowboys -4.5, total 44.5.

IAHHM Best Bets: NFL Week 7

1. Patriots +3 (-118) vs. Bears. If you can find +3.5, take it. NE is 5-0 ATS in regular-season prime-time games under Vrabel, and Chicago is tied for last in yards allowed per play.
2. Patriots-Bears Over 50.5 (-115). Both offenses are hot, the weather is clear, and Chicago gives up big plays.
3. Drake Maye Over 1.5 passing TDs (-122, FanDuel). He has 10 TD passes over his last three games.
4. Panthers -3 (-110, FanDuel) vs. Buccaneers. The league’s top passing offense faces a bottom-10 pass defense, and Tampa ranks 29th in EPA/play. Bet it before Friday’s Mayfield news.
5. Buccaneers-Panthers Under 44.5 (-110). Tampa has scored fewer than 20 in four of five, and Carolina has gone under in three of four.

Anytime TD Favorites: Week 7

Odds from Bleacher Nation’s Week 7 anytime TD board (published Oct. 21). Season TD totals are rushing/receiving.

Player	Game	Odds	2026 TDs
Jahmyr Gibbs	Packers at Lions	-330	7 / 2
Derrick Henry	Bengals at Ravens	-280	7 / 1
Christian McCaffrey	49ers at Falcons	-270	7 / 0
Bijan Robinson	49ers at Falcons	-240	4 / 1
Javonte Williams	Cowboys at Eagles	-175	7 / 1
D’Andre Swift	Patriots at Bears (TNF)	-160	6 / 0
Kyren Williams	Rams at Raiders	-160	4 / 1
Jaylen Warren	Steelers at Saints	-145	1 / 1
Chuba Hubbard	Buccaneers at Panthers	-135	4 / 2
Puka Nacua	Rams at Raiders	-130	1 / 1
Jonathan Taylor	Colts at Vikings	-125	7 / 0
Ashton Jeanty	Rams at Raiders	-125	1 / 2
MarShawn Lloyd	Packers at Lions	-120	2 / 1
Kenneth Walker III	Chiefs at Seahawks (SNF)	-120	6 / 2

Value TD Picks

• Roschon Johnson (+210, FanDuel): He’s been the more efficient Bears back and scored last week. (Yahoo Sports)
• Colston Loveland (+170, DraftKings): He has 21 targets over his last three games and caught a TD in Week 6. (SI)
• A.J. Brown (+140, DraftKings): Maye’s top target with Doubs and Hollins on IR. He saw 10 targets last week.

Long Shot

Caleb Williams anytime TD (+400, DraftKings). He ran for two TDs on 10 carries in Week 1. In his first two outings he scrambled 15 times for 107 yards.

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Sources

• Covers: Patriots vs. Bears prediction
• Covers: NFL Week 7 odds and opening lines
• Covers: Patriots vs. Bears TD picks
• Covers: Buccaneers vs. Panthers prediction
• VegasInsider: NFL Week 7 odds
• Yahoo Sports: Patriots vs. Bears TNF odds and props
• SI: Patriots vs. Bears anytime TD picks
• Bleacher Nation: Bears vs. Patriots odds
• Bleacher Nation: Week 7 anytime TD odds
• FanDuel Research: Panthers vs. Buccaneers
• Doc’s Sports: Buccaneers vs. Panthers
• Buccaneers.com: Oct. 21 injury report
• NBC Sports: Bryce Young practicing in full