North Dakota State Bison Basketball: Stats, Win Probability, and Tournament Outlook
The North Dakota State Bison men’s basketball enter postseason play as one of the more balanced mid-major teams in the country. With a deep rotation, efficient three-point shooting, and strong defensive metrics, the Bison could present matchup problems for higher-seeded teams in the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament.
But whether North Dakota State can make a run will depend on their perimeter shooting, defensive pressure, and the production of their backcourt leaders.
“I think this team is probably the deepest roster that NDSU’s ever had.”👀@freddy_coleman on why this @NDSUmbb team is going to be a tough out in March Madness🦬🔥 pic.twitter.com/xMsyO33VRm
— Bison 1660 (@Bison1660) March 12, 2026
North Dakota State Team Stats
North Dakota State has built its identity around efficient offense and balanced scoring.
Bison Team Averages
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79.1 points per game
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36.6 rebounds
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14.9 assists
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9.4 three-pointers made
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26.3 three-point attempts
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7.7 steals
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2.8 blocks
Defensive Metrics
North Dakota State’s defense has quietly been one of their strongest assets.
Opponent Averages
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70.8 points allowed
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32.2 rebounds
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13.8 assists
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8.4 three-pointers allowed
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25.2 three-point attempts
Key Players Leading North Dakota State
The Bison’s success has come from a balanced roster where multiple players contribute significant minutes.
Damari Wheeler-Thomas
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14.9 PPG
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3.6 rebounds
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2.7 assists
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Position: 6’0 Guard
Wheeler-Thomas is the offensive engine for North Dakota State, providing scoring and pace control in the backcourt.
Trevian Carson
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12.2 PPG
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6.5 rebounds
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2.8 assists
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Position: 6’3 Guard
Carson brings physicality and rebounding from the guard position, helping the Bison maintain possession advantages.
Markhi Strickland
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11.1 PPG
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3.5 rebounds
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1.4 assists
Strickland provides additional perimeter scoring and floor spacing.
Treyson Anderson
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10.8 PPG
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5.6 rebounds
Anderson adds versatility as a forward capable of scoring inside and attacking the boards.
Andy Stefonowicz
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9.4 PPG
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3.1 rebounds
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4.8 assists
Stefonowicz plays a key role as a facilitator, leading the team in assists and helping maintain ball movement.
Additional Contributors
Noah Feddersen
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9.1 PPG
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5.2 rebounds
Tay Smith
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7.3 PPG
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2.6 rebounds
North Dakota State currently has eight players averaging over 11 minutes per game, which gives the Bison strong rotational depth.
Nothing better. pic.twitter.com/Icwc8lzNwq
— NDSU Men’s Basketball (@NDSUmbb) March 9, 2026
Win Probability Analysis
Based on their statistical profile, North Dakota State’s chances against higher-seeded teams vary depending on pace and shooting efficiency.
Estimated Tournament Win Probabilities
First round matchup vs higher seed
Win probability: ~38–42%
If three-point percentage exceeds season average
Win probability increases to: ~48%
If opponent forces turnovers and controls rebounding
Win probability drops to: ~30%
The Bison’s performance is highly dependent on shooting variance from deep.
What Could Beat North Dakota State
There are several weaknesses opponents can exploit.
1️⃣ Interior Size Advantage
Teams with dominant frontcourts can challenge North Dakota State’s rebounding and interior defense.
2️⃣ Transition Defense
If opponents push tempo and score in transition, it neutralizes the Bison’s half-court defensive strength.
3️⃣ Perimeter Defense
Limiting North Dakota State’s three-point attempts could significantly reduce their scoring efficiency.
How North Dakota State Can Win
Despite those challenges, the Bison have clear paths to victory.
1️⃣ Hot Three-Point Shooting
If North Dakota State shoots above 38–40% from three, they become extremely difficult to defend.
2️⃣ Ball Movement
With 14.9 assists per game, strong passing and spacing are essential to generating open shots.
3️⃣ Defensive Pressure
Their 7.7 steals per game can disrupt opposing offenses and create transition opportunities.
X-Factor: Guard Play
The success of the Bison may ultimately come down to the backcourt combination of Wheeler-Thomas and Carson.
If those guards can control pace and limit turnovers, North Dakota State has a legitimate chance to compete with stronger tournament opponents.
Final Outlook
The Bison may not be one of the tournament favorites, but their statistical profile suggests they could be a dangerous upset candidate.
With:
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balanced scoring
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strong perimeter shooting
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deep rotation
the Bison have the tools to surprise teams if their offense finds rhythm.
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