NFL Week 10 Betting Preview: Commanders vs. Giants Breakdown, Best Bets and Anytime TD Favorites

Week 10 opens tonight in the rain at MetLife, and the Panthers head to the Superdome Sunday with the market flipping on them. Here is the full IAHHM betting board: tonight’s Thursday Night Football breakdown, the Carolina game, quick takes across the slate, five best bets and the anytime TD favorites.

Odds below are the VegasInsider consensus as of Nov. 11 unless another book is named. Lines move, so check your app before you lock anything in. IAHHM may earn a commission from purchases made through links in this post.

Thursday Night Football: Commanders at Giants

Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET, MetLife Stadium, Prime Video
Spread: Giants -2.5 (-110) / Commanders +2.5 (-110)
Total: 41.5 (Over -105 / Under -115)
Moneyline: Giants -142 / Commanders +120
Records: Giants 5-2-1 (6-2 ATS), Commanders 2-5-1 (4-4 ATS)

This line opened around Giants -1 to -1.5 and got bet up to -2.5, while the total slid from 43.5 to 41.5. New York is coming off a 19-11 win in Philadelphia that was four field goals and one touchdown. Washington lost 20-13 to the Rams after leading 10-3 in the second quarter.

These two already met in Week 5, and it ended in an overtime tie. That one was not a defensive grinder: the teams combined for 57 points.

Injuries to Watch

• Giants QB J.J. McCarthy left last week’s game with a hip injury, came back and finished it. He says it will not keep him out tonight, but it is a short week. Jaxson Dart has missed much of the season.
• Commanders: OL Lucas Patrick is doubtful and WR Dyami Brown is on IR. Stefon Diggs and Treylon Burks carry no injury designation.

The Numbers That Matter

• Run game edge: Washington ranks 8th in yards per rush. The Giants rank 27th in yards per rush allowed. Washington ran for 202 yards in the Week 5 meeting.
• Yards per play: Washington won that Week 5 game 6.3 to 4.9 in yards per play.
• EPA: The Giants defense has hovered around the top 10 in EPA per play this season.
• Red zone: Both defenses struggle inside the 20. The Giants are last in opponent red-zone TD rate and Washington is 29th.
• Pressure: Washington blitzes on 44% of dropbacks, second-most in the NFL, and the Giants are tied for the fifth-most sacks allowed.

Trends and Weather

• Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games after an outright loss.
• The Over is 5-3 in Giants games and 4-4 in Commanders games.
• The Giants have scored the first TD in 17 of their last 26 games against Washington.
• Weather: Upper 40s with rain and 10-15 mph winds expected.

The IAHHM Angle

The records say Giants. The underlying numbers say this is closer than 5-2-1 vs. 2-5-1. Washington already out-gained New York per play once, the rain favors the team that can run, and the Giants QB is playing through a hip on a short week. We are taking the points.

TNF Props

• Isaiah Likely anytime TD (+195, BetMGM): He has six TDs this season, five of them on red-zone targets, and Washington has allowed eight TD catches to tight ends, the second-most in the league. He scored twice against Washington in Week 5.
• Cameron Skattebo anytime TD (+105, BetMGM): The favorite on the board, facing a Washington defense that has allowed seven rushing TDs.
• Jayden Daniels anytime TD (+260, BetMGM): A buy-low shot. He has only 49 rushing yards over his last three games, but rain and a bad Giants run defense set up QB keepers near the goal line.

Panthers at Saints: The Carolina Game

Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Caesars Superdome, FOX
Spread: Saints -2.5 (-108) / Panthers +2.5 (-112)
Total: 48.5 (Over -115 / Under -105)
Moneyline: Saints -135 / Panthers +114
Records: Panthers 3-5, Saints 3-5

Here is the story for Carolina fans: BetMGM actually opened the Panthers as 1.5-point road favorites. The market has since swung the other way, and the consensus now has New Orleans at -2.5.

Carolina is on an 0-3 skid, straight up and against the spread. Last week, the Panthers were driving for the go-ahead score against Denver when Bryce Young fumbled on a sack, and they lost 26-21. New Orleans beat Cleveland 23-22 in overtime by stopping a two-point try at the end.

Panthers-Saints Injuries

• Panthers: G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out), Will Lee III (out), LB Bobby Okereke (questionable, foot), RB Jonathon Brooks (IR).
• Saints: TE Noah Fant (questionable, back), CJ Donaldson (questionable, shoulder), Christen Miller (questionable, knee), David Edwards (questionable, knee).

Panthers-Saints Numbers and Trends

• Neither defense gets off the field. Carolina allows 47.7% on third down (31st) and New Orleans allows 47.2% (28th).
• The Saints turn 70.4% of red-zone trips into TDs, fourth in the league.
• The Saints are 3-5 ATS and just 1-3 ATS when favored by 1.5 or more. The Over is 5-3 in their games.
• The Panthers are 3-5 ATS.

IAHHM angle: We want the Panthers to snap the skid as much as anybody in the Carolinas, but the cleaner bet is the total. Two defenses that cannot get off the field on third down, plus a Saints offense that cashes in the red zone, points toward the Over 48.5.

Quick Takes on the Rest of Week 10

• Patriots vs. Lions (Munich, 9:30 a.m. ET, FOX): Lions -2.5, O/U 51.5. Detroit is 4-0 straight up in its last four. New England got blown out 45-27 by Green Bay and is on an 0-4 ATS slide.
• Bills at Jets (1 p.m., CBS): Bills -8.5, O/U 50.5. The Jets are 2-7 and have lost four straight. BetMGM saw the total jump from 49.5 to 51 almost immediately.
• Jaguars at Titans (1 p.m., FOX): Jaguars -10.5, O/U 46.5. Jacksonville rolled Baltimore 33-10. Tennessee is 1-7 but off a bye and took Cincinnati to overtime in its last game.
• Chiefs at Falcons (1 p.m., CBS): Chiefs -3.5, O/U 45.5. Kansas City is 6-2. Atlanta is 3-6 and flying back from Madrid.
• Vikings at Packers (1 p.m., FOX): Packers -3.5, O/U 42.5. Green Bay is 6-0 ATS in its last six.
• Texans at Browns (1 p.m., FOX): Texans -4.5, O/U 40.5. Houston has won three of four after an 0-4 start. Cleveland is 6-3 ATS.
• Rams at Cardinals (4:05 p.m., CBS): Rams -9.5, O/U 39.5. The Rams are on a 3-0 SU and ATS run, but Arizona won the first meeting 18-16.
• 49ers at Cowboys (4:25 p.m., FOX): 49ers -3.5, O/U 55.5. The highest total on the board. San Francisco is 7-1 and the early public money is on the Niners.
• Steelers at Bengals (SNF, 8:20 p.m., NBC): Bengals -3.5, O/U 49.5. Pittsburgh is 6-2 SU and ATS, off a bye and on a 4-0 SU and ATS run.
• Chargers at Ravens (MNF, 8:15 p.m., ESPN): Ravens -4.5, O/U 38.5. The winless Chargers may be without Justin Herbert (finger).

On bye: Bears, Broncos, Eagles, Buccaneers.

IAHHM Best Bets for Week 10

1. Commanders +2.5 (-110) at Giants. Run game vs. a bottom-five run defense, in the rain, against a banged-up QB on a short week.
2. Isaiah Likely anytime TD (+195, BetMGM). The best matchup on the TNF board: a red-zone TE against the defense that gives up TDs to tight ends.
3. Panthers-Saints Over 48.5 (-115). Two of the worst third-down defenses in football, and a Saints offense that finishes drives.
4. Steelers +3.5 (-110) at Bengals. Rested, 6-2 ATS and on a four-game cover streak. We will take the hook in a rivalry game.
5. Cardinals +9.5 (-108) vs. Rams. Arizona won the first meeting 18-16, and the Rams just put Puka Nacua on IR. Nine and a half is a lot in a divisional game.

Anytime TD Favorites for Week 10

Player	Team	Matchup	Odds	Book
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	at LV	-110	Fanatics
Cameron Skattebo	NYG	vs. WAS	+105	BetMGM
Zach Charbonnet	SEA	at LV	+105	Fanatics
Brock Bowers	LV	vs. SEA	+110	Fanatics
Blake Corum	LAR	at ARI	+115	via SportsLine
Ashton Jeanty	LV	vs. SEA	+120	Fanatics
Parker Washington	JAX	at TEN	+120	BetMGM
Malik Nabers	NYG	vs. WAS	+165	BetMGM
Isaiah Likely	NYG	vs. WAS	+195	BetMGM
Stefon Diggs	WAS	at NYG	+250	BetMGM
Devin Singletary	NYG	vs. WAS	+250	BetMGM
Jayden Daniels	WAS	at NYG	+260	BetMGM
Chigoziem Okonkwo	WAS	at NYG	+300	BetMGM

Value TD Picks

• Isaiah Likely (+195): Covered above. This is the one we like most.
• Brock Bowers (+110): Fanatics flags him as the best expected-value TD play in Seahawks-Raiders.
• Parker Washington (+120): He leads Jaguars skill players with 10 red-zone targets, and Tennessee ranks 32nd in pass defense DVOA.

Long Shot

Van Jefferson anytime TD (+550, BetMGM): He scored Washington’s first TD last week on a 7-yard pass from Jayden Daniels, and he faces the league’s worst red-zone defense by TD rate.

Sources

• VegasInsider: NFL Week 10 Odds, Lines and Trends
• Covers: Commanders vs. Giants Prediction and Picks
• Covers: NFL Week 10 Odds and Betting Lines
• SI: Commanders vs. Giants Odds, Injuries and Trends
• BetMGM: Giants-Commanders First and Anytime TD Odds
• SI: Commanders vs. Giants Anytime TD Picks
• Lineups: Commanders-Giants TD Picks
• Pickswise: Commanders vs. Giants Anytime TD Scorers
• FanDuel Research: Saints vs. Panthers
• Squawka: Panthers vs. Saints Prediction
• Bang The Book: Panthers vs. Saints Injuries
• Fanatics: Seahawks vs. Raiders Odds
• BetMGM: Best Anytime TD Predictions for Week 10
• SportsLine: Week 10 Longshot Parlay
• Covers: NFL AI Predictions Week 10
• StatSniper: Week 10 Schedule, Byes and Networks
• StatSniper: Puka Nacua Placed on IR

Featured image: Reuters Connect via Covers.

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